Stossel: My political advice for 2016? Place your bets
January 27, 2017
Presidential nominees are not yet taking up space in most people’s minds.
Right now, bettors know that Trump, even though he is ahead in polls, is unlikely to be the nominee. But when it was publicized, outraged Sens. They picked Romney. Ted Cruz comes in second. They’re not perfect, of course, but they’re better than everything else.
Think the odds are wrong? Put your money where your mouth is! You could win money.
Despite bettors’ good track record, few people know about the odds or how they’re created. Likewise, bettors anticipated the Obama victory that many polls and pundits missed.
The odds on the big unrestricted m88 asia market in England, Betfair.com, are much more informative. It shows the odds more clearly and will automatically update them every five minutes.
Pundits have a terrible track record. Yikes!
When a polling company reaches the rare person willing to talk to a stranger on the phone, chances are that person is not well-informed about politics. “Who do I support for the nomination? Uh, who’s running? I’m embarrassed! Oh, yes, Donald Trump!”
John Stossel is the author of “No They Can’t! Why Government Fails — But Individuals Succeed.” Stossel appears regularly on Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network providing signature analysis. Patrick Leahy and Orrin Hatch complained the Hollywood stock exchange would lead to “speculation that is even more risky than the typical financial product.”
Don’t trust polls or pundits. You think a lot about politics. If Trump wins, everyone who owns that share gets $1. … Most Americans don’t.
That’s why the Department of Defense once asked Hanson to create a market to predict things like wars and terrorism. That implies Trump has a 23 percent chance of winning the nomination.
Polls are better, but not much. It’s not even close.”
But the markets disappeared because America’s elites don’t like the idea of ordinary folks betting on important events.
Unfortunately, American politicians banned political prediction markets, with a few exceptions, like PredictIt.com. Since you read this column, you are different from most voters. Ron Wyden and Byron Dorgan held a news conference to say “encouraging people to bet on and make money from atrocities … Newspapers ran headlines like “Betting Odds on Roosevelt Rise to 7 to 1.”
Sadly, Hillary Clinton is a 95 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination and has a 55 percent chance of becoming our next president. Last election, Newt Gingrich and Dick Morris forecast a Romney “landslide.” Rush Limbaugh said, “All my thinking says Romney big. Trump and Jeb Bush are third and fourth.
But people who bet knew better. Here’s how: computers average bets made on “prediction markets,” where traders buy and sell shares — like stocks — on each candidate. needs to be stopped immediately.”
Want to know who the next president will be?
A few years later, politicians killed a prediction market that would merely have let people bet on the success of Hollywood films. Betting odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com are the best predictor of who will win any election.
Polls reveal only a snapshot of current opinion. As I write, a share of Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination effectively costs 23 cents. University of North Carolina researchers found that from 1868 to 1940, prediction markets “did a remarkable job forecasting elections.” More than $100 million was bet, sometimes exceeding the value of shares changing hands on Wall Street. European prediction markets are good at predicting Oscar winners, weather disasters, even “American Idol” winners. That’s because you are not normal. Marco Rubio is the favorite. Stock markets, commodity markets, insurance was banned.”
That’s dumb, because nothing is better at predicting the future. But candidates’ odds are somewhat off on that site because bettors may not trade more than $850 per candidate.
Economist Robin Hanson says, “All our familiar financial institutions were once banned as illegal gambling. Sens. In 2011, Rick Perry led the polls for the GOP nomination with Trump-like 31 percent support. Click here for more information on John Stossel.
Fortunately, American politicians don’t control the entire world, so I offer you the most accurate presidential race odds: ElectionBettingOdds.com.
. By December, Newt Gingrich.
People think about food, sex, money, friends, jobs, success, family, health, religion, sports, fashion, video games, money, sex, food (I know I repeated those last three, but that’s where most people’s heads are). By October, Herman Cain was ahead. But so what? In a free country, adults ought to be allowed to speculate.
Prediction markets have a long track record. Betfair posts those odds in arcane gambling formulas, so producer Maxim Lott and I created the website ElectionBettingOdds.com
Latest posts by Amelia Woodward (see all)
- My Top 5 Sports Betting Sites - March 26, 2017
- Stossel: My political advice for 2016? Place your bets - January 27, 2017
- GBGC – Asia Has 10 of the Worldâs Largest Casinos - January 26, 2017