Ultimate CFB bowl betting guide
August 4, 2016
How a team ended the regular season: “Were they on a run to make the bowl, or did they lose a lot?” White asks.
A subset of No. Throw away any games against non-bowl competition. Pittsburgh
8. Ohio State
4. We’ve asked our experienced group of gambling experts, including Chad Millman, Dave Tuley, Phil Steele, Evan Abrams, Brian Edwards, David Solar, Wunderdog and Sal Selvaggio, what they’re focused on during bowl season.
VR line: Northern Illinois (+5.5)
Georgia Tech (+7) vs. Mississippi State
Below we provide:
To show how close these rankings are, Alabama is ranked a perfect 50, but there are 11 different teams within 10 points of Alabama and 19 different teams within just 12 points of the Crimson Tide. San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (+3) vs. Taxslayer Bowl: Iowa (+3.5) vs. “What you want to do is see how a team stepped up in class,” Leonard says.
Here’s a primer that outlines the factors professional bettors consider when wagering on bowl games. 31 Orange Bowl)
Florida State (+9) vs. 1 Outback Bowl)
We preach the importance of betting against the public and taking underdogs in games with low totals. How can you trust UCLA?
7. Boston College
5. 2 Alamo Bowl)
After winning four straight to start the season, UCLA lost two in a row, then won five straight before an awful performance against Stanford. Consider how the conference is doing in bowls.
The Buckeyes haven’t been this big of an underdog since Week 4 of 2011 at Nebraska (plus-10). Auburn (Jan. 1 Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, and Oregon 4.5 points better than Florida State in the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, California.
6. Emphasize a team’s road performance over its home performance. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines accordingly. Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland (+13.5) vs. UCLA (Jan. Concepts of money management and selectivity are often disregarded during bowl season, although many trends fall in line with those we’ve observed during the regular season.
For our value plays, we had six bowl games that had a difference of four points or more between the Las Vegas point spread and the difference in the two teams’ CFB Vegas Rankings.
Enjoy and good luck this bowl season.
Here are all of the teams participating in bowl season, and how Las Vegas sees them:
Vegas Rankings of every bowl team.
6. Our stance is rooted in experience: One reason underdogs fare particularly well in low-scoring games is that less scoring naturally leads to closer games, which disproportionately benefits the team getting points.
VR line: Florida State (+4.5)
Chad Millman’s seven rules for betting bowl games.
VR line: Wisconsin (+1)
VR line: Ohio State (+5)
Our combined power ratings have Alabama as five points better than Ohio State (the Tide’s 50 rating, minus the Buckeyes’ 45) in the Jan. New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (+2.5) vs. How much time off a team has had before the bowl: “When you are not playing, it’s hard to simulate game speed.
The CFB Vegas Rankings are the composite power ratings of a panel of professional handicappers and college football statisticians, including fellow Insider Phil Steele, Vegas handicapper Brian Edwards and Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet. Stanford
7. 20 and Jan.
Bowl season is the holy grail of the sports calendar. 1 and No. With this in mind, we created a new betting system using our Bet Labs software, which focused on all underdogs with low totals receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets during bowl season. This is a time for celebrating the holidays with family and friends, knocking back a glass of eggnog (which, let’s stop kidding ourselves, is really just a socially acceptable way to drink pancake batter one month every year) and engaging in binge football viewing.
3. Quotes are courtesy of Kenny White, the current COO of Don Best Sports, and Vegas vet Bryan Leonard.
With an abundance of bowl games, many bettors feel obligated to lay down a wager on every game. 2 is bowl experience, but not for the reason you think: “I’m more likely to give a team a higher ranking if it hasn’t been to a bowl for a while because that will generate excitement among the program and fans,” White says.
Kansas State (PK) vs. Mississippi State (Dec. But fear not, Insider is here to help.
CFB Vegas Rankings
It’s not surprising that our No.
The best system bets for this bowl season from David Solar of Sports Insights.
Our historical database shows that since 2005, the average college football total is 53.66 points. 4. How much excitement a team will have headed into the bowl: “You’re looking for a team that is thrilled to be there and looking forward to the game,” White says.
ESPN’s CFB Bowl Mania »
Northern Illinois (+10) vs. San Diego State
3. Advocare V100 Texas Bowl: Texas (+5.5) vs. Where we saw a difference was in the No. Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Notre Dame (+7.5) vs. The weather on schools’ respective campuses: “The SEC, Pac-12, even the ACC tend to do better in the bowls than the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East,” White says. Oregon (Jan. 3 and 4 spots; some liked Ohio State then TCU, while others liked TCU then Baylor. Northern Illinois has been in this position before, and Marshall has failed to cover its last three games entering bowl season.
1. Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (+3) vs. Utah State
2. Michigan State
5. It’s like driving on the highway at 30 mph,” White says.
Georgia Tech ended the season on a six-game ATS winning streak and faces a Mississippi State team that just came off a loss against its rival, Ole Miss, in the Egg Bowl after a tremendous start to the season. Thirty days of practice in warm weather before a bowl game helps you get a lot more done than practicing in a bubble or outside in a cold climate.”
Wisconsin (+6.5) vs. Meyer is 4-0 as an underdog at Ohio State, which makes this an interesting angle.
2. Marshall (Dec. The ratings are meant to compare the relative strength of the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, which is what we get in bowl games (except for rare cases). TCU
2. 2 teams are Alabama and Oregon, and all three handicappers gave the Crimson Tide and Ducks those ratings. This criterion produced a system with a 48-28 ATS record (63.2 percent) with plus-17.18 units won and a 22.6 percent return on investment (ROI).
It’s easy to get overwhelmed amid the myriad college football bowl games that will be played between Dec. Tennessee
– David Solar
Jay Kornegay’s Top Public Teams
The handicappers believe this is a simple overreaction to the last time the nation saw Wisconsin play.
To both the pro-Vegas bettor and the casual gambler, Florida State, a team that has won 29 straight games, getting nine points is pretty crazy. 1 Rose Bowl)
Here are eight plays that match this system:
The five teams that have taken the most bets over the course of the season, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas, and his staff:
Typically we prefer a larger sample size when creating a new betting system; however, with a limited number of bowl games in our database, this system has proved to be profitable during the regular season as well.
Ohio State (+9.5) vs. Sharp bettors are able to then capitalize on these artificially inflated lines by focusing on teams that are being ignored across the marketplace.
1. 1 Sugar Bowl)
1. How motivated will the Bulldogs be?
5. Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTEP (+10) vs. Using that baseline, we define a low total as any game with an over/under of 54 or less. Urban Meyer has not been this big of an underdog since he was the head coach at Utah against Texas A&M in 2003. Just like the College Football Playoff committee, there was a simple difference of opinion when it came to team value.
Handicappers’ five best ATS bets, SU bets, O/U bets and potential upsets. The last time Florida State was this large of an underdog was in Week 14 of 2009 against Florida (plus-26).
CFB PickCenter »
VR line: Kansas State -4
All odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Westgate sportsbook as of Tuesday, Dec. Getting blown out by Ohio State 59-0 in the Big Ten championship game has inflated this spread; according to the handicappers, this should be around Auburn minus-1.
– Evan Abrams
Picks, Picks, Picks
Best Bowl-Season System Plays from Sports Insights
CFB bowl schedule »
NIU won its last seven games of the regular season, including a game against Western Michigan, where it was an 8-point underdog. “I think the warm weather has a lot to do with that. Alabama (Jan. 16.
Chad Millman’s Seven Bowl-Bonanza Rules . 23 Boca Raton Bowl)
Top five public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas.
Vegas Ranks line: Georgia Tech +3
Betting against the public is a subject we’ve discussed ad nauseam, but it certainly bears repeating: The public loves to bet on favorites and overs, which makes sense since it is human nature to root for winners and scoring. Alabama
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